When armed conflict breaks out, observers often raise the prospect of a diplomatic solution. But these talks are far from automatic, and they can take a long time to produce results. They entail a grueling process of persuading conflict parties to compromise and make concessions, especially when they’re losing. And, as the experience of past conflicts demonstrates, many talks fail to result in peace.
Several factors contribute to the challenges of high-level diplomacy during wartime. For example, leaders may worry that the strategic costs of peace negotiations are too great, so they wait until battlefield realities have weakened their opponents before agreeing to negotiate. And, as the experience of Russia’s war on Ukraine demonstrates, such strategies can prolong conflict and inflict unnecessary suffering on civilians.
Then there’s the question of how peace talks are understood, which is a key factor in whether they’ll succeed. Despite their length and complexity, successful peace negotiations usually include significant steps toward ending armed conflict and building sustainable peace. They also tend to address a wide range of issues, from addressing root causes like poverty and global inequalities to resolving specific underlying dynamics such as historical marginalisation or exploitation.
To improve the chances of success, it’s crucial to ensure that these processes are inclusive and involve a diverse array of actors and instruments. This includes civil society, regional and international actors that can act as neutral guarantors or mediators. It’s also essential to resolve differences between key players, such as the United States’ National Security Council, State Department and the Pentagon, early on.
