Political unrest can disrupt public services, cause injuries and loss of property, destabilize a country, and trigger a cycle of violence that can last years. It’s important to know the signs and symptoms of political unrest, so you can take steps to stay safe and protect yourself.
A rise in political unrest is an alarming trend. While the exact causes vary from place to place, many of the recent protests have been linked to economic issues—such as higher fuel and food prices, cuts in social benefits, or reforms reducing or eliminating entitlement benefits—or to events that expose corruption or social injustice (including claims of stolen elections).
While severe inequality may be behind some political unrest, it’s not necessarily the only reason. Inequality can make people feel that the government is not listening or acting on their concerns, and that its leadership lacks legitimacy. These feelings can also be aggravated by high levels of corruption, weak enforcement of the rule of law, or other factors that diminish faith in a state’s ability to provide basic services.
While the causes of political unrest are complex, IMF research suggests that past turmoil and proximity to neighboring countries are among the best predictors of future civil strife. IMF economists Sandile Hlatshwayo and Chris Redl have used machine learning techniques to assess the predictive power of 340 economic and social indicators. They found that, on average, past turmoil and proximity to neighboring countries are about 10 times more informative about the likelihood of a country experiencing civil unrest than the most revealing indicator.
